Give me 12 episodes, babe

Just when I was about to hang up the tuba, the industry sends word it could use my cover of "Enter Sandman”. What else could you make of the news that Pizza Hut is launching an in-store entertainment network?

The disclosure of Hut TV follows indications that McDonald’s, Hardee’s, Arby's and Wendy's, among others, are also installing proprietary entertainment networks for patrons to watch as they munch their fries. The trade is going on the air. Instead of placing fast-food products in TV shows, some brands are placing TV shows in fast food.

Which leads me to why I’m suggesting you pick a card, any card. I don’t know if you’ve seen any television recently, but clearly there’s not a deep pool of programming from which the established networks can draw. If Rob Blagojovich’s wife is being cast in a primetime show, “Paint Drying: The Mini Series” might already be in storyboards on some cable exec’s desk. My flaming baton work may finally get the showcase it deserves. Heck, the other guy from Wham! might end up a star. This could be the best news Vanilla Ice ever got.

Of course, there’s some concern about how my art will be received in a quick-service venue. I don’t know about you, but the last thing I need is more streaming entertainment. If Fast Food TV catches on, it’ll fill in that five-minute gap when I’m disconnected from computer screen, Twitter feeds, cell-phone calls, radio, television, land line and iPod. Whew. No more of that mind-numbing boredom of thinking without distraction. Or, even worse, relative silence.

The chains are betting the media-saturated will appreciate not having to struggle through a disruption in sensory input. They’re also counting on unique programming to provide a point of distinction, like a new sandwich or a head-turning bargain. Pizza Hut, for instance, reportedly views Hut TV as an integral part of recasting the brand as a cooler, more contemporary concept called The Hut.

It’s a bold wager. Done wrong, the entertainment could be seen as an annoyance, or the sort of background din that’s disparaged as elevator music. And picking programming is clearly dicey. Need I mention "Cop Rock," a musical police show that was backed by Stephen Bochco and NBC? Or the Fox Network's "The Tick," starring a regular from "Seinfeld"? If that's how the industry's luminaries can stumble, imagine what an upstart network could do.

But what do I know? I was sure my kazoo rendition of “Umbrella” would chart.

A 2000 forecast: How'd we do?

At the end of the last century, several industry associations commissioned McKinsey & Co. to craft a detailed picture of what the foodservice business would look like in 2010. It wasn’t intended as some what-if game, or a slab of Jules Verne-like imagineering. Foodservice 2010, released with considerable hoopla, was intended to serve as a roadmap for suppliers and restaurateurs who wanted to keep their businesses in sync with the marketplace. And that setting, McKinsey concluded, was likely to be much different from the world we knew in the year 2000.

But the think tank, it turned out, didn’t have the gift of Nostradamus. Nor The Amazing Kresgin. Or even Carnak. Here were some of the changes it foresaw:

"Chief among them,” wrote the researcher and consulting firm, was “a boost for full-service restaurants over the younger generation’s choice, fast-food restaurants.” Maybe that’ll happen next year, but for right now, fast-food places are walloping their up-market peers. Fine-dining is shrinking into a rarified sector where the Monopoly man can still tuck into a Coq au Vin after checking the polo standings. But that sector, in its classic form, seems to be going the way of the monocle. And casual dining is fighting to recover its relevancy.

Online purchasing would become the norm. If you’re buying music for an iPod, maybe. But the online commerce hubs that proliferated in foodservice during 2000 have faded into obscurity. Each promised at the time to provide a way for restaurateurs to compare prices and buy in an efficient manner that could essentially cut out the middleman. Better deals, consummated with manufacturers either directly or via third-party buying cooperatives. Distributors were expected to be recast as transporters, not wholesalers controlling the supply pipeline, as they traditionally had been. Alas, it clearly never happened. Sysco is probably dispatching a henchman to my house right now because I dared to air the possibility.

Technology would fundamentally change the restaurateur-customer interaction. “For example, PDAs will facilitate mobile commerce which could revolutionize the meaning of takeout,” asserted Foodservice 2010.

The percentage of women working outside the home would continue to rise, albeit at a slower rate. Even before the recession hit with full force, the number of working women had declined.

To be fair, the forecast was on the mark in several respects.

For instance, it advised full-service restaurants to engineer more efficient ways of offering takeout, citing pent-up demand. Today, curbside service is a standard offering for the big casual chains.

It also counseled full-service restaurants to differentiate themselves. Too bad they didn't heed that recommendation.

Almost eerie was the prediction that consumers would simultaneously demand “individuality,” or what chains of all stripes would now label order customization, and “belonging,” or the sense of inclusion that social media is viewed as delivering.

This isn’t meant as a knock on McKinsey or the groups that sponsored the study. It's actually a bit of self-criticism. One of the study's backers was Restaurant Business magazine, which I served at the time as editor. I was also one of the people who were interviewed to give input into the qualitative study.

Rather, the look back underscores how difficult it is to peer a year into the future, never mind a decade. Credit-default swaps were unknown at the time. And yet they’ve profoundly changed the industry’s fortunes since last summer. Who could've imagined such a thing.

Indeed, Foodservice 2010 was marketed as the best of its sort, with a price tag of $2,000 for non-members of the sponsoring organizations.

Krispy Kreme to give bagels a try

Krispy Kreme may have to rework its neon sign to read, "Hot pastries now." The doughnut chain announced this morning that the ink has dried on a new baked-goods menu that includes bagels, Danishes, muffins, and pecan and cinnamon rolls. 

The bagels are particularly of note since they could be the chain's eventual means of adding sandwiches, breakfast or otherwise.

In disclosing that the baked-goods menu is ready to be tested later this year, Krispy also noted that it's new soft-serve ice cream, Kool Kreme, will soon be available in seven stores. 

Same-store sales for company-run units rose 2.1% during the three months ended May 3, the franchisor said. Profits for the quarter fell by more than half, to $1.9 million from $4 million.

Beverage wars give rise to healthy counter-attack

Fast-food chains are scrambling like frat boys at a kegger to grab more coffee and smoothie servings. So how are the intended victims protecting their cup counts? In one of the great ironies of the business, drink specialists are countering with promises of better fast food.

The Reuters news service carried an exclusive yesterday about Starbucks’ plan to replace its anemic food offerings with a new line-up of better-for-you choices. "Food has been the Achilles' heel of the company,” executive vice president of marketing Michelle Gass told reporter Lisa Baertlein. “That statement will be long buried after we launch this program."   

The new selections will reportedly include salads, breakfast sandwiches made with egg whites, and a variety of baked goods sweetened with sugar rather than high-fructose corn syrup, which nutrition scolds put in the same category as Communism, puppy kicking and bathroom-grout mold.   

The baked products will also be produced without dyes or artificial flavorings. Preservatives will also be eliminated wherever possible, Starbucks said.   The new array’s tagline will be “Real Food. Simply Delicious,” Gass told Reuters.  

The news came to light a few days after Jamba Juice informed investors that it expects a new menu of “healthy on-the-go” food choices to generate as much as every fifth sales dollar (see below).   Included are grab-and-go wraps, salads and sandwiches.   

The meal-in-a-cup specialist is also encroaching on Starbucks’ turf a bit with new cold teas.   Then again, Starbucks plans to extend its Vivanno smoothies line. 

Jamba: Big dollars won't be coming through a straw

The blenders will keep whirring, but Jamba Juice expects a still-in-test food menu to generate as much as one-fifth of the smoothie chain’s future sales.   

“I don’t think that 20% target for the overall mix longer term would be out of the question,” CEO James White told investors last week.   

His optimism is based on a six-unit test of food options like sandwiches, wraps and salads, which are now being rolled into 200 California stores for a more extended trial.   

White also cited research indicating that 27% of Jamba’s drink customers consume their smoothies with food, purchased currently from other sources.   

“They’d welcome high quality health foods offered at Jamba locations,” White said in a conference call with analysts. “In fact, when asked many of them have wondered what’s taken us so long.”   

Right now, the only Jamba product that can’t be sucked through a straw is the steel-cut oatmeal introduced earlier this year. “It actually beat any of our internal projections and gave us great confidence to move forward on the current plan,” White said.   

That new emphasis on food “transforms our business model and company” by drawing new customers and increasing sales from current fans, he contended.   

Meanwhile, the franchisor is continuing to pursue a licensing program that’ll soon put the Jamba name on a variety of retail products. One of the more unusual is a blender from Think Wow Toys that kids can use to churn up their own smoothies. 

The worst news you haven't heard

The automobile business may not be the only industry to suffer a permanent dislocation from the recession.  A study by McKinsey & Co. apparently shows that one-third of the consumers who’ve cut back on restaurant visits are unlikely to resume their old dining-out habits after the economy rebounds.  

The revelation was shared by ketchup giant H.J. Heinz Co. during its recent conference call with investors. Because the company’s sales are so tied to the fortunes of the U.S. restaurant business, participants pressed officials for their take on the trade’s near-term future.  

The forecast wasn’t a rosy one: A 5% drop in traffic for roughly the next 11 months, after a 5% drop during the just-concluded fiscal year, and a 1% decline in unit counts.     

A transcript of the call quoted CEO William Johnson as also citing “a recent Mackenzie report,” though the translation appears to be an error. Johnson apparently said “McKinsey,” and the translator provided a phonetic translation.   

The report “said about a third of consumers will return to their normal eating-out habits once the economy returns but about a third won’t,” said Johnson, who noted that Heinz’s business strategy is based in part on that research. As one listener put it, the company expects “consumer frugality will stay fashionable.”  

“We’re expecting the worst and preparing for the best,” said Johnson.  

Ironically, indicated North American CEO David Moran, Heinz is trying to offset the foodservice slump in part by delivering “a restaurant experience at home.” The company’s giant packaged-foods business will push more foodservice-quality heat-and-eat meals, including two marketed under the T.G.I. Friday’s brand name.  

Lend a shoulder for headhunters to cry on

I’m holding a tissue drive for the industry’s executive placement specialists, commonly known as headhunters. They’ll likely be burning through Kleenex this week after what must’ve been excruciating months of watching the grass grow, the bills pile up, the accountants nixing luxuries like a communal box of nose dabbers. Now that the tears are being shed in joy instead of despair, why not let them sob and honk a bit?   

The week is less than 48 hours old, yet we’ve already seen two screaming indications that companies are making big hires again. Lane Cardwell, a longtime veteran of casual dining, was appointed CEO over the weekend of Boston Market. On Monday evening, Carin Stutz, a standout who seemed on the CEO track at Applebee’s, was named COO of Global Business Development for Chili’s parent, Brinker International. They’re the sort of placements that give headhunters the vapors, a giddiness they likely haven't felt in awhile.  

Both of the week’s marquee recruits are huge talents, and, interestingly, both were previously under-employed. Their return to full-time duty suggests the smart companies are starting to raid the considerable bench of talent that’s been formed by the cut, cut, cut imperative of the last nine months. The mindset might be shifting back to assembling a standout team, instead of hacking one to bits for the sake of a budget.  

That possibility seems more likely when you consider a few big-name hirings in April, like Bennigan's recruitment of David Goronkin as its new leader, or Real Mex Restaurants' appointment of Dick Rivera as CEO. They, too, were previously under-employed What seemed at the time to be exceptions to the rule may in hindsight be the early indications of an emerging trend.

If the recent developments are indeed the first signs of a shift, it’ll be high-five-worthy news for headhunters. So, please, do your part as they cry for joy. Steal all the tissues you can from your accounting department, and donate them to a worthy placement agency.