Better forecast

With all the post-holiday hubbub, I didn't have a chance to air my forecast for 2012. It's a shame because the task is outrageously easy this year. Every major trend boils down to "better."

Not "better" in terms of business conditions, though the National Restaurant Association yesterday forecast a slightly easier time for the industry in 2012 (apparently I wasn't the only laggard in presenting year-ahead predictions. Until a few years ago, the issued its annual economic preview during December of the preceding year. Now the data isn't released until we've torn the first page off the New Year calendar.)

The byword is "better" because it's the G-string that gets the consumer's dollar these days. Palms get all sweaty when shoppers spy something of truly superior quality at a can-do price. It's as unavoidable as admiring Mitt Romney's hair.

The industry has been jabbering for years about redefining value as affordable quality. This year, talk has given way to unprecedented action. Much of the chain-related restaurant news to date has centered on better food, better service, better environment and better business practices.

Wendy's is upgrading its burgers--again. Taco Bell is "reinventing" the taco and striving to match the quality of Chipotle. Jack in the Box is installing fireplaces as part of a design overhaul. Domino's is hawking artisan pizza and a better signature side.

McDonald's is crowing about a personal connection with the farmers who grow its food. Chipotle's spin-off Asian concept features high-end small-batch beers. Panera Bread is currently promoting salmon.

On the full-service front, Ruby Tuesday is providing fresh bread and tossing its Caesar salads tableside.

The whole gourmet-burger craze is built on the concept of providing what's better. It, in turn, is part of a larger movement by high-end chefs into fast-food, where they hope to make a name (and a bagful of loot) by providing white-tablecloth-quality fare. Late last year the NRA cited that emerging fast-fine segment as one to watch.

The problem is, "better" is relative. What's a notch above the usual today becomes tomorrow's norm. So what will be the new manifestations of better?

--Better sodas. Everyone is infatuated with the fast-casual market, where several of the standouts have spec'd small-batch artisan colas and flavored soft drinks. Skinny Pizza, for instance, offers a fountain version of Boylan Diet Black Cherry soda, a favorite that I've never seen in fountain form before. Expect to see more of those high-craft drinks populating the coolers of limited-service brands, including some of the big names.

--Better condiments. There have been fits and starts in that direction, and the foodservice supplier community is certainly anticipating the process, with better mayo, catchup and salsas already in distributors' warehouses. But that might be only the start.

--Better packaging. When was the last time you said, "Wow, that's a really cool takeout package we're using"? Customers frequent a place because of the food, the convenience or the price. But a truly breakthrough sort of packaging could help in delivering that overall sense of "better."

--Better French fry alternatives. The apple slices are now a standard. Carrot and celery sticks are tight there, too. So what's next? Sweet potato fries are certainly cropping up everywhere (and are rumored to be in test by Wendy's). A personal plea: Please, someone add raw broccoli florets as an option so I can get my sister off my back.

--Better veggie options. I'm talking about new choices from the mainstream chains and brands. It's time to go beyond veggie burgers and sandwiches with the meat omitted.

--Better pizza. This isn't a swipe at Domino's, since I've not tried its new artisan pies. it's directed at all the pizzerias in the eastern regions of the U.S., and New York in particular, that have coasted on the strength of their ovens for decades. They've turned pizza into a commodity, instead of striving to do something different. Like something better than the mass of pie makers out there.

--Better prices on better drinks. I'm not lost in some nostalgic dream about nickel candy bars, but a $12 beer is overpriced, especially when I know it retails and wholesales at a completely different tier. Wine prices are also getting crazy. A $40 tab for two glasses of wine on the way home for work just doesn't make sense.

--Better office catering. I say that as a consumer. More flavorful and extensive choices, please. The portable taco bar is the last innovation I can remember in that realm.

The worst news you haven't heard

The automobile business may not be the only industry to suffer a permanent dislocation from the recession.  A study by McKinsey & Co. apparently shows that one-third of the consumers who’ve cut back on restaurant visits are unlikely to resume their old dining-out habits after the economy rebounds.  

The revelation was shared by ketchup giant H.J. Heinz Co. during its recent conference call with investors. Because the company’s sales are so tied to the fortunes of the U.S. restaurant business, participants pressed officials for their take on the trade’s near-term future.  

The forecast wasn’t a rosy one: A 5% drop in traffic for roughly the next 11 months, after a 5% drop during the just-concluded fiscal year, and a 1% decline in unit counts.     

A transcript of the call quoted CEO William Johnson as also citing “a recent Mackenzie report,” though the translation appears to be an error. Johnson apparently said “McKinsey,” and the translator provided a phonetic translation.   

The report “said about a third of consumers will return to their normal eating-out habits once the economy returns but about a third won’t,” said Johnson, who noted that Heinz’s business strategy is based in part on that research. As one listener put it, the company expects “consumer frugality will stay fashionable.”  

“We’re expecting the worst and preparing for the best,” said Johnson.  

Ironically, indicated North American CEO David Moran, Heinz is trying to offset the foodservice slump in part by delivering “a restaurant experience at home.” The company’s giant packaged-foods business will push more foodservice-quality heat-and-eat meals, including two marketed under the T.G.I. Friday’s brand name.  

Twice as many predictions of food and flavor trends

The value trend has apparently seeped into the Institute of Prognostication or wherever it is the crystal ball gazers congregate at this time of year to spit out forecast after forecast. The first sets of predictions to reach Restaurant Reality Check both disregarded the conventional list approach to cite two trends where one might’ve sufficed for each ranking in past years.

The McCormick spice company’s Flavor Forecast, for instance, predicts 2009’s Top 10 Flavor Pairings rather than merely the flavorings that will come into vogue. And Epicurious.com’s New Food Trends cleverly cites what’ll be out as well as in.

Here they are in their entirety.

From Epicurious.com:

1. Peruvian is the new Thai: You thought Peruvian cuisine was all about seviche, maybe? Guess again: Peru boasts culinary influences from Spanish, Basque, African, Cantonese, Japanese, Italian, French, and British immigrants. Pisco Sour, anyone?
2. Noodle Bars are the new sushi joints: With some seafood being suspect or overfished and raw fish prices high, noodles make complete sense. If there's no ramen, udon, or soba shop in your neck of the woods,there probably will be soon.
3. "Value" is the new "sustainable": These days, the economy dictates our cooking and shopping decisions. Bargains are in, no matter where they come from.
4. Ginger is the new mint: Move over, mojitos. Ginger beers and ginger cocktails (like the Ginger Rogers, Gin-Mule, and Ginger Smash) are bubbling up at places like the Violet Hour in Chicago, the Clock Bar in San Francisco, and Matsugen in New York.
5. Smoking is the new frying: You know how everything tastes better fried? Well, almost everything tastes better smoked, too, and that includes cocktails. Bartenders (Eben Freeman at Tailor in New York, for example) are smoking their bourbons, and chefs, recognizing the national craze for BBQ flavor, are smoking more than just salmon and ribs: nuts, salts, even smoked steelhead roe (at Chicago's Alinea). Who says smoking's bad for you?
6. Regional roasters are the new Starbucks: It's come full circle. What started as a local coffee phenomenon migrated to other cities and turned Americans into java junkies. Then the chain overexpanded, and the little neighborhood coffee roasters thrive again, like Stumptown (Portland, Oregon), Blue Bottle (San Francisco), and La Colombe (Philadelphia).
7. Portland (Maine) is the new Portland (Oregon): Abundance of great chefs, restaurants, and local foodies? Check, check, and check. Want examples? Visit Five Fifty-Five, Hugo's, and Fore Street to start.
8. Rustic food is the new molecular gastronomy: Wacky weird-science cuisine that requires fancy-schmancy equipment doesn't necessarily make food taste better, and more often than not it adds needless complexity (there are exceptions). Most importantly, no one really wants to do this at home. Expect to see comfort food stage a comeback again.
9. "Top-Rated" is the new "Critic's Pick": Power to the people; single critics are a dying breed. Why believe what one person says when you can read and reflect on what hundreds think?

From McCormick:

1. Toasted sesame and root beer: An iconic soda is rediscovered for its versatility as a cooking ingredient, paired with the bold nuttiness of toasted sesame seed.
2. Cayenne and tart cherry: The flavors of two superfoods -- the heat of cayenne and sweet-sour tang of tart cherry -- pack a multi-layered punch.
3. Tarragon and beetroot: The hip pair creates a sensory feast that is anything other than predictable or restrained.
4. Peppercorn melange and sake: Japan's notable rice wine finds a new partner in the quintessentially French unison of multicolored peppercorns.
5. Chinese five spice and artisan-cured pork: Hand crafted artistry merges with a harmonious Asian blend to create an innovative taste sensation.
6. Dill and avocado oil: Mild avocado oil finds an elegant partner in clean, minty dill -- reflecting the healthy goodness that comes from pure, natural ingredients.
7. Rosemary and fruit preserves: Fresh-picked fruit flavors fuse with aromatic rosemary for a progressive interpretation of sweet and savory.
8. Garam masala and pepitas: A beautifully matched global combination of an intoxicating spice blend from India and a prized seed popular in Latin America.
9. Mint and quinoa: Nutritious, whole-grain quinoa is taken to new heights when paired with the exhilarating, cool taste of mint.
10. Smoked paprika and agave nectar: Smoky sweetness from the purity of nature celebrates a union of Spanish and Mexican ingredients.