The hot restaurant concepts of 2010?

Last week I helped some culinary students flag the differences between John Schnatter and Mickey Rooney.

Unless your cable service was down last summer, chances are high you saw Schnatter trying to give a bundle of cash to the current owner of the Camaro he sold in the ‘80s to enter the restaurant business. Schnatter used the proceeds to convert a section of his father’s bar into a walk-up pizza counter. Literally a closet operation, the venture grew to become Papa John’s, with annual sales exceeding $2 billion. Because of Schnatter’s skill at hatching a concept, he could forget a Camaro and buy General Motors instead.

Mickey Rooney, for those of you who don’t recognize the name, was one of Hollywood’s biggest draws during the 1930s. Indeed, he was the George Clooney of his time, at least in terms of fame and screen appearances. But, astoundingly, his round-hotdog restaurant chain never quite caught on during the ‘70s, even though the product fit so neatly on a circular bun.

Efforts to start a restaurant concept have yielded more train wrecks than the film careers of Pauly Shore and Tom Green, combined. Need I mention the failed attempts of Muhammed Ali, Steven Spielberg, Alice Cooper, Johnny Carson, Arnold Schwarzenegger and Mike Piazza, to name just a few?

Yet the list of aspirants continues to grow, with names like Richard Branson, Rolling Stone magazine and boxer Julio Cesar Chavez added to the roster just in the last month or so.

Because I’ve witnessed so many crashes and triumphs, I was invited last Tuesday to address a class at New York’s Institute of Culinary Education, an often-overlooked contributor to the city’s phenomenal restaurant scene. My mission was to opine on what separates a Schnatter-ly restaurant venture from the Rooney-esque, something very important to the students because they’re all in the process of brainstorming a concept of their own.

Instead of talking in the abstract and risking a symphony of text-message alerts from the kids’ phones, I handicapped what I believe will be the Hot Restaurant Concepts of 2010.

My picks aren’t new to the scene at all. Rather, these are concepts likely to enter the mainstream next year, even if they no longer elicit oohs and aahs from the black-dressed sport diners on the coasts.

Here’s the list, along with a few thoughts.

Places specializing in street foods: This is a surer thing than Tiger Woods having his text messages screened for the next month. Indeed, I can’t understand why it wasn’t on all the forecasts that were pecked out of foodie keyboards in recent weeks.

Street food certainly fits the times. Peasant fare sold in bazaars or along busy thoroughfares is simple, and simplicity (or its fellow traveler, back to basics) was on virtually every list.

The ingredients tend to be fresh—another check mark on the trend inventory—and inexpensive, which holds the price to a level consistent with the current Age of Thrift.

Foods patterned after the street fare of Third World nations also tend to be grilled, roasted or boiled—relatively healthful prep methods that fit the sometimes contradictory goals of being flavorful and better for you.

Finally, we’ve already seen street foods snag interest from a few of the industry’s Mount Olympus set—gods and goddesses like Rick Bayless, Susan Feniger, David Chang, and Ming Tsai. The trend has even merited its own Flavors of the World conference, the foodie equivalent of the Burning Man Festival.

Confidence in this one is high.

Taquerias: A sub-set of the street-food craze, authentic tacos are drawing sufficient attention from big-name chefs and restaurateurs to merit their own Hot Trend designation. Celebrity proponents include Traci Des Jardins, Bayless, and Paul Kahan, to name just a few.

As I’ve noted in this space before, the interest from fine-dining chefs makes you wonder if taquerias will supplant burger joints as their low-end concept of choice.

Burger restaurants: It’s still on my list, but only because of bandwagon-jumping. The ranks of patty specialists will undoubtedly grow, but I bet we start to see some wheezing in this sector, or at least at its pricier end. There’s just not sufficient differentiation, and the novelty of a burger flipped by a Michelin-caliber chef is going to wear off.

This is my pick of Fade of the Year, largely because of the differentiation issues.

Gastro pubs: Indeed, why couldn’t these places co-opt whatever pent-up demand is left for high-end burgers?

But gastro pubs offer so much more, including comfort and casualness, two positives that aren’t going to lapse from fashion anytime soon. They’re also prime proponents of the high-caliber beer trend, which shows every appearance of having legs.

I know, I know: Gastro pubs have been around for years. But watch for a proliferation, particularly in areas inland from the current strongholds of Chicago, Los Angeles and Minneapolis. They’ll become the choice of indulgence.

Then again, maybe I’m prejudiced. Gastro pubs are the trend I’d most like to see catch fire in 2010, speaking as a consumer.

Restaurant trucks: We’ll undoubtedly see more chefs serving from a wheeled kitchen next year, though I’m far less certain of this trend’s staying power.

Right now, there’s considerable appeal to turning the key on a new truck concept. Consumers like the convenience and typically lower prices of a mobile operation. Operators appreciate the reduced overhead and start-up costs, which in turn allow them to keep their menu prices in check.

But I can’t help but wonder if novelty figures large in the appeal that was evident in 2009. Once you’ve tried the sardine truck, are you really going to build your night around it? And what about the yearning for a dining environment, even if it’s just a table and a chair?

Most of the trucks also specialize in a particular menu item, and history has shown us that a one-trick pony has a tough time in this business. Consider such flashes as soup, muffin, croissant and frozen yogurt concepts. Most were either co-opted or abandoned by a clientele that wanted more of a selection.

The jury’s still out here, though a proliferation of kitchens on wheels should prompt a verdict.

Authentic-food chains: This is a sleeper, an up-and-comer that’s not getting as much attention as, say, Spanish restaurants, or gourmet fried-chicken places.

Perhaps the potential trend is still going unnoticed, a reflection of its limited exposure to date. There are really two proponents of note: Seasons 52, Red Lobster’s high-end little sister, and True Food Kitchen, a one-off that P.F. Chang’s is carefully studying as a possible expansion vehicle.

Both feature seasonal, fresh fare with healthful overtones. Seasons 52, for instance, could boast that its entrees are under 500 calories.

But it downplays that plus to stress the integrity and freshness of its fare. Seasons 52 is the chain embodiment of the yearning for off-the-farm ingredients you don’t have to feel guilty about consuming.

True Food Kitchen, a brainchild of Phoenix restaurateur Sam Fox, goes one step further by featuring organic and natural ingredients. It professes to “nourish body, mind and spirit,” which is music to the yoga-and-couples-massage set.

The brakes on this one are the logistical challenges—finding enough seasonal fare of consistent quality, and doing it at a cost that translates into reasonable prices. But it’ll come, especially as medium-sized agriculture continues to make a comeback.

Whim restaurants: This is a forecast virtually peculiar to me, but I’m more convinced than ever there’s something here.

As I mentioned in an earlier posting, “whim restaurants” is my term for the ventures of high-end chefs who want to do something creative, small scale, and highly spur-of-the-moment. Such luminaries as Thomas Keller and Tom Colicchio are embracing these home-style niche places as a way of featuring the dishes they like to cook and eat themselves, with menus determined no farther in advance than their home dinner plans.

Since I last wrote about Keller’s Ad Hoc and Colicchio’s plan for an extension of his Tom: Tuesday Dinner into a full-scale restaurant, several other whim ventures have come to light. Michael Bauer of the San Francisco Chronicle devoted a blog installment to the phenomenon, though he didn’t use my label.

Leslie Brenner, in a blog for The Dallas Morning News’ website, described a whim sort of place, but used the term “guerilla restaurant.” She described a place envisioned by local restaurateurs that will be used to raise funds for charities. The hours and nights of service will be limited, and the chef will vary as readily as the menu does.

The concept may still sound alien to the U.S. market, but it’s already become established in the U.K., where the term “pop-up restaurant” is being stretched to cover places that chefs are opening to indulge their culinary whims of the moment.

The search is on. And on. And on.

KFC is hunting for the next Colonel Sanders. Papa John’s wants to find the muscle car that founder John Schnatter sold in 1984 to fund his first pizza. Applebee’s announced Tuesday that it’s commencing a search for America’s “real heroes.”

Add in the now-routine pursuit of customer’s ideas for new menu items, from doughnuts (Dunkin’ Donuts) to desserts (The Cheesecake Factory), and you have to wonder why restaurant chains still bother with ad agencies. They might be better off with Dog the Bounty Hunter, or even Elmer Fudd.

Call it the American Idol Effect. Restaurants are counting on the intrigue inherent in a quest to snag the attention of a public that avidly tunes into talent searches, “America’s Most Wanted” and the “National Treasure” franchise.

But they’re making a mistake if they view white-bread searches as the way to interact with customers, the arch objective in the age of Twitter and YouTube. They might as well announce a hunt to find America’s most adept flagpole sitter.

Many of the searchers should consider how Papa John’s is conducting its search. The objective is the 1972 Z 28 Camaro that Schnatter sold for his start-up investment in the restaurant business. The funds were used to convert the closet of a relative’s bar into a pizza stand.

The now-3,400-unit chain is backing up the search with live updates on Twitter and postings on a microsite, www.papasroadtrip.com. Schnatter himself is supposedly waging the search, but he brought along two interns to generate photos, videos and blog dispatches.

Papa John’s is also using a new gimmick that’s touted as a bridge between the real world and the virtual one. Customers can scan the image of a Z 28 from a Papa John’s pizza box and upload it as a virtual vehicle. The image then becomes an avatar of sorts, a visual point for taking the user on the search. It's as if the car is the sort of marker you'd use in a Monopoly game.

Finally, the search component is backed up with good ole TV advertising. Schnatter is shown delivering pies, so the focus isn’t completely off the chain’s product. There’s also the teaser of a $25,000 reward for the long-lost car.

The marketing ploy may be a search, but it’s supercharged with plenty of ways of interacting with consumers. That blend of the old with the new is increasingly being cited by social media gurus as the way to really cut through the clutter.

Retailers have Xmas, restaurants have the NCAA

With the match-ups set, teams from coast to coast are braced for the tip-off that officially starts March Madness. Some even play basketball.

Far, far more are restaurant staffs braced for what was once merely the NCAA playoffs, the rapid-fire series of elimination games that determines the nation’s best college basketball team. Today, the multi-week stretch clearly reigns along with Valentine’s Day, Mother’s Day and New Year’s Eve as one of the restaurant industry’s biggest promotional opportunities.

The big chains try to squeeze traffic out of the contest through tie-ins that extend far beyond traditional advertising. Papa John’s, for instance, is the official sponsor of the official March Madness bracket, the schematic that traces who wins or loses at each level of elimination, on Facebook. Arby’s announced a sandwich giveaway that kicks in only if one of the lesser-ranked NCAA contestants should beat a top seed in the first round of games.

Taco Bell has one of the stronger connections. The Taco Bell Arena in Boise, Idaho, is hosting the first series of games.

Raising Cane’s, the chicken-finger specialist, is using the NCAA Tournament as a touchstone for its first-ever targeted marketing campaign. The effort plays off dunking—in its case, the type that involves sauce and chicken-finger-dipping. Fans who want a quick party meal are encouraged to take home one of the 80-unit chain’s Tailgate ready-to-serve platters.

The chains try to connect their brand name to the high-profile tourney. But countless independents and small multi-units use the event as a direct source of business, encouraging fans to watch the games in their booths and bar stools. The Berghoff, a landmark restaurant in Chicago, will be offering $3 “Bar Bites,” free raffle tickets, and beer and bourbon tastings between 2 and 7 p.m. everyday for the next 16 days.

Restaurants in Annapolis, Md., are joining forces in a March Madness-meets-Restaurant-Week sort of promotion, which in turn is tied into a larger sales push by the Annapolis Business Association. For a three-day stretch starting March 27, local merchants will conduct a sidewalk clearance sale, while their foodservice colleagues offer food and drink specials. The intent is to pull residents downtown, where one spouse can shop while the other warms a bar stool, yells at the TV screen, and has a beer.

With the increased reliance on March Madness as a key promotional opportunity has come stepped-up risk as well. Buffalo Wild Wings has warned investors when Ohio State was eliminated early from the tournament. The chain’s units in Ohio are popular places to watch the Buckeyes, and if they’re out of it, who cares how Michigan State might be doing? The fans stay home. (OSU is ranked third in its division this year.)

The rules of promotion are also being formalized. Establishments in Kansas City are reportedly being warned of a crackdown by NCAA enforcers on the unlicensed use of the athletic association’s patented trademarks, including March Madness, the Sweet Sixteen and Elite Eight.

It's not exactly a key concern for my alma mater, New York University. Once again our team, the fierce-sounding Violets, have yet to be invited to the dance.

The tournament begins Thursday.

A changing of the guard at Dunkin'

Now we know where Nigel Travis is going. Dunkin' Brands, the franchisor of Dunkin' Donuts and Baskin-Robbins, has just named the former Papa John's chief as CEO, replacing Jon Luther. The latter will continue with the company as executive chairman.

Papa John's said Thursday that Travis was leaving at the end of the month, but didn't say where he was heading.

During Travis' tenure, Papa John's distinguished itself in many ways. The chain's most remarkable achievement during the Travis Era was pushing its internet sales beyond the $1 billion market, a benchmark of sorts for the industry. More recently, the franchisor set a model for how the home office should help its franchisees during the downturn. Papa John's rolled back the price of cheese it sold to the licensees, and helped them out with loans.

Luther, the announcement noted, is at the traditional retirement age of 65. It's great that a man that capable and classy still be part of the industry.

My favorite Luther story (and, for the sake of full disclosure, I regard him as a friend): When Jon's son got married a few years back, he asked Jon Sr. to be his best man.

Since we last met...

Sorry if I sound a little rusty. Since Nation’s Restaurant News laid me off Tuesday, I’ve not been blogging, at least about the restaurant business (though I have been doodling about my new status at Pink-slipped). I figured I’d clear some of the cobwebs by offering a few observations about the industry’s week that was:

Pretty soon T.G.I. Friday’s is going to start giving away living room sets with every meal you order. The casual chain’s frequent-guest program, Give Me More Stripes, started out with the usual bonuses for heavy traffic. Then it tried to sweeten the deal by throwing a free helping of chips and dip into the mix. Now the sector’s granddaddy is adding the whipped cream of a free dessert to any card carrier who visits a unit next weekend and buys an entree. I’m holding out for a steak-knives offer.

Taco Bell president Greg Creed has cajones bellgrande. First the chain proves it’s a badass by dissing 50 Cent. Last summer it suggested the mega-star reprise a Chihuahua’s role by serving as an unlikely pitchman for the Bell. Change your name to 79 Cent, 89 Cent or 99 Cent, the home office publicly offered, and we might be able to come through with bling-bling—a $10,000 payment to the charity of your choice [Thugs Without Bullets, perhaps? Teeth Grills for the Disadvantaged?). The proposal was put forth just as Taco Bell was rolling out a new value menu, an event that may not have snagged much publicity on its own. But Taco Bell tweaking a nasty mother like 50 Cent? Big news, dog.

50 Cent, the only rapper whose music I refuse to let my wife play when I’m in the car, responded with a lawsuit. He may try hard (and convincingly) to come off as a gangsta in the hood, but he’s a brilliant businessman who’s not going to let his name be used gratis as part of a publicity ploy.

Taco Bell should’ve been grateful that the response wasn’t a drive-by. But instead of dropping the matter, it filed a blistering defense that accused the Gangsta Formerly Known as Curtis James Jackson III of not being able to take a joke.

Indeed, the Sept. 19 court filing, brought to light yesterday by the gossip site TMZ was one big bitch-slap (Fast Company called it “counter-blathering.”) Taco Bell alleged in its filed response that 50 Cent nee Jackson “has a well-publicized track record of making threats, starting feuds and filing lawsuits,” and that his suit was merely an attempt to “burnish his gangsta rapper persona.”

“Instead of responding to Taco Bell's sincere offer in the friendly and humorous spirit in which it was issued,” the suit reads, “Jackson launched an aggressive, offensive attack on Taco Bell in the press. In a heavily publicized sound bite, Jackson threatened legal action against Taco Bell stating, "When my legal team is finished with them, Taco Bell is going to have a new
corporate slogan: 'We messed with the bull and got the horns.'"

The filing—technically an “affirmative defense”--disputes or denies each on of 50 Cents’ assertions in turn. It then asks the court hearing the action to dismiss it and make the the rapper pay Taco Bell’s legal fees.

A heads up to Creed: Remember Tupac, my man.

Just think ‘pizza’ and your delivery order will be placed. Maybe we’re not there yet, but the major delivery chains are certainly inching closer to that Isaac Asimov-ian vision. Domino’s, a leader in online ordering, added the option last week of letting TiVo users put in for a pie via the set-top box. Papa John’s announced that it would try to protect IM fanatics from malnutrition by allowing them to buy a delivered pizza without leaving Facebook, an option that Pizza Hut started added in mid-Oct.

So, let us review. Want to order a pizza? You can now do it via your phone (cell or landline), computer, Facebook account, TiVo, video game, or text-messaging capability.

My money’s on Pizza Hut as the first to accept brainwave orders. The chain should just hope it doesn’t intercept any that were beamed by 50 Cent at its sister brand.