Better forecast

With all the post-holiday hubbub, I didn't have a chance to air my forecast for 2012. It's a shame because the task is outrageously easy this year. Every major trend boils down to "better."

Not "better" in terms of business conditions, though the National Restaurant Association yesterday forecast a slightly easier time for the industry in 2012 (apparently I wasn't the only laggard in presenting year-ahead predictions. Until a few years ago, the issued its annual economic preview during December of the preceding year. Now the data isn't released until we've torn the first page off the New Year calendar.)

The byword is "better" because it's the G-string that gets the consumer's dollar these days. Palms get all sweaty when shoppers spy something of truly superior quality at a can-do price. It's as unavoidable as admiring Mitt Romney's hair.

The industry has been jabbering for years about redefining value as affordable quality. This year, talk has given way to unprecedented action. Much of the chain-related restaurant news to date has centered on better food, better service, better environment and better business practices.

Wendy's is upgrading its burgers--again. Taco Bell is "reinventing" the taco and striving to match the quality of Chipotle. Jack in the Box is installing fireplaces as part of a design overhaul. Domino's is hawking artisan pizza and a better signature side.

McDonald's is crowing about a personal connection with the farmers who grow its food. Chipotle's spin-off Asian concept features high-end small-batch beers. Panera Bread is currently promoting salmon.

On the full-service front, Ruby Tuesday is providing fresh bread and tossing its Caesar salads tableside.

The whole gourmet-burger craze is built on the concept of providing what's better. It, in turn, is part of a larger movement by high-end chefs into fast-food, where they hope to make a name (and a bagful of loot) by providing white-tablecloth-quality fare. Late last year the NRA cited that emerging fast-fine segment as one to watch.

The problem is, "better" is relative. What's a notch above the usual today becomes tomorrow's norm. So what will be the new manifestations of better?

--Better sodas. Everyone is infatuated with the fast-casual market, where several of the standouts have spec'd small-batch artisan colas and flavored soft drinks. Skinny Pizza, for instance, offers a fountain version of Boylan Diet Black Cherry soda, a favorite that I've never seen in fountain form before. Expect to see more of those high-craft drinks populating the coolers of limited-service brands, including some of the big names.

--Better condiments. There have been fits and starts in that direction, and the foodservice supplier community is certainly anticipating the process, with better mayo, catchup and salsas already in distributors' warehouses. But that might be only the start.

--Better packaging. When was the last time you said, "Wow, that's a really cool takeout package we're using"? Customers frequent a place because of the food, the convenience or the price. But a truly breakthrough sort of packaging could help in delivering that overall sense of "better."

--Better French fry alternatives. The apple slices are now a standard. Carrot and celery sticks are tight there, too. So what's next? Sweet potato fries are certainly cropping up everywhere (and are rumored to be in test by Wendy's). A personal plea: Please, someone add raw broccoli florets as an option so I can get my sister off my back.

--Better veggie options. I'm talking about new choices from the mainstream chains and brands. It's time to go beyond veggie burgers and sandwiches with the meat omitted.

--Better pizza. This isn't a swipe at Domino's, since I've not tried its new artisan pies. it's directed at all the pizzerias in the eastern regions of the U.S., and New York in particular, that have coasted on the strength of their ovens for decades. They've turned pizza into a commodity, instead of striving to do something different. Like something better than the mass of pie makers out there.

--Better prices on better drinks. I'm not lost in some nostalgic dream about nickel candy bars, but a $12 beer is overpriced, especially when I know it retails and wholesales at a completely different tier. Wine prices are also getting crazy. A $40 tab for two glasses of wine on the way home for work just doesn't make sense.

--Better office catering. I say that as a consumer. More flavorful and extensive choices, please. The portable taco bar is the last innovation I can remember in that realm.

MIA: Something new

Send out an A.P.B. and snap on the Bat Signal. Some scoundrel has run off with the restaurant industry’s love of innovation. And it looks as if it might be an inside job.

The authorities have their suspicions about the culprits. They’re looking for glassy-eyed numbers fiends who wield machete and scalpel with equal zeal, slashing costs the way hopped-up jungle guides would blaze a trail.

But the real scourges are the accomplices—the CEOs, marketers and ops specialists who know better than to stifle new ideas. Instead of nurturing green shoots, they’re standing by while the bean counters prune anything with an expense. It’d be like a dairy farmer trying to offset a dip in production by feeding the cows less silage.

You can only hope the cut-and-kill mindset will be arrested. Here’re the questions that should be put to the innovation throttlers during the interrogation:

Where are the new concepts? Except for a few upscale riffs on established brands—think The Whopper Bar, Baja Fresh’s new dinner-focused prototype, or Baskin-Robbins’ new cafes—we’ve seen virtually nothing in the way of new restaurant ideas from the chains. That’s an historic shift, especially for casual dining, where the big brands were always scouting the hinterlands for The Next Big Thing.

Everyone agrees that this is an unprecedented time that could forever change the business. Isn’t it foolhardy to think that yesterday’s concepts are going to meet tomorrow’s tastes?

Ironically, we did see a new entrant in the market in early July. Unfortunately, it’s something called Crazy Girls Café, a strip club that also serves food. There’s a novel notion.

Where are the aha! moments? Consider this obvious one: Craft condiments. Soft drinks, a staple of the business, are being reconsidered as the public shifts to options promising more uniqueness, character and quality. Smaller, highly crafted brands are gaining favor.

The same dynamic holds true in the beer business. Would any new restaurant not offer a craft brew today, if not a beer that can only be purchased there?

So why not ketchups and mustards? Why aren’t we seeing the proliferation of high-craft selections with different flavors and consistencies? There’s a burger boom underway. Why not a ketchup craze?

For a glimpse of what might have been, look at the barbecue-sauce and marinade sections of your local grocery. There are more options than what you’ll find in the salad dressing aisle.

The exception that underscores the non-trend is Ketchup, the multi-outlet concept of The Dolce Group in California. The restaurant features five house-made ketchups to accompany its heavily local menu of comfort foods with contemporary twists.

Where’s the urgency in casual dining to come up with something new? The innovations of the last two years could be summed up as sliders, $9.95 filets, micro-brews, mini-desserts and better full-sized burgers. Whoa.

Why isn’t the sector at least staying current with the trends? For instance, other than Seasons 52, is any concept addressing the fresh and local trend? Organics? Or even green? Name one chain that’s as active as the fast-feeders are in greening their facilities.

Clearly the economic climate is taking its toll, stifling creativity that could distinguish an operation. But the real lost opportunity may not be evident until conditions improve. By that time, many established brands are going to regret that they weren’t trying yesterday to come up with what’ll fly tomorrow.